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A p r i l 2 0 0 2
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Understanding Performance Report
Returns
There are basically two methods to
calculate investment returns; dollar-weighted returns and time-weighted
returns. Time-weighted returns represent the return an investor
would have received with a single deposit left to accumulate and compound
from point A to point B. It does not take into account the timing of
additional cash flows to or from the portfolio. Therefore, the
amount of time or the value of a deposit to the portfolio is not included
in the analysis.
The time-weighted rate of return is
the standard reporting measurement for the investment industry and the
method utilized in our portfolio performance reports. It allows an
investor to compare the performance of any two investment, funds,
managers, etc. over any period of time. The performance is measured
regardless of any other investor's behavior in owning the investment.
We will explain more about this in a moment.
Dollar-weighted returns are also
known as the internal rate of return. Dollar-weighted returns differ
from time-weighted returns because they account for the timing and amount
of cash flows to and from the investment or portfolio. Whereas, the
timing of cash flows to and from an investment is irrelevant to the
time-weighted return (i.e. the investor's behavior in allocating capital),
they are significant to dollar-weighted returns.
Morningstar conducted a study of
returns for growth mutual funds from 1988 to 1994 that will help to
explain the difference between the two performance calculations.
From 1988 to 1994 the time-weighted return for the approximately 200
funds studied was 12.01%. A dollar invested on January 1, 1988 and
kept in the funds through December 31, 1994 earned 12.01%.
However, when the studied accounted
for the timing of the cash flows; i.e. as investors committed cash to the
funds over the six-year period, the dollar-weighted return for the 200
funds was reduced to 2.02%.
Though the study did not look at each
individual investors return in the funds, it can be deduced that the
average investor's return in the fund was something less than the
time-weighted return of 12.01%. Growth fund investors on the whole
tend to follow popular investments. Or said another way, they tend
to buy investments that are increasing in value. There are other
studies that reflect over 75% of investors commit their capital when over
50% of the investment's return has been realized.
As in the previous example, when
investments are increasing in value and an investor continues to commit
capital his dollar-weighted return will suffer. However, the
opposite can occur. For example, when a portfolio is decreasing in
value and additional investments are made the dollar-weighted return can
actually improve over the time-weighted return. This was the case
from March of 2000 through September 2001.
We have a discipline for investing
cash added to portfolios. This dollar-cost-averaging discipline will
change depending on our valuations of the relevant asset classes in an
investor's portfolio. In 1999 we believed the majority of the asset
classes were over-valued. This was particularly true of the Large
Growth and Mid Cap Growth classes. As a result, we committed as
little as 25% initially and 75 % over 12-18 months to the Growth asset
classes. We believed the Value asset classes and the International
asset classes were more fairly valued and committed 50% initially and
dollar-cost averaged the balance.
In mid 2001, we believed that due to
a decline in the equity markets stocks were becoming better values.
We changed the dollar-cost-averaging discipline by increasing the
initial investments in growth to 50% and value and international to 75%.
The goal was to commit more capital at lower prices, thus improving
the portfolio performance. This was a valuable strategy change and
has improved the dollar-weighted returns. These changes are not as
fully reflected in the quarterly performance report's time-weighted
returns. However, we believe this strategy will be seen in the
long-term time-weighted returns as prescient asset allocation and manager
choices are made and their benefits realized.
The short-term differences in
dollar-weighted returns versus time-weighted returns can be significant.
As a portfolio becomes fully invested and cash flows to or from the
portfolio or investment are minimized, the differences in the two types of
returns are negligible. |
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The opinions expressed in this
report are those of the author and are not necessarily the same as Howe
Barnes Investments or its research department. The contents of this
letter have been compiled from original and published sources believed to
be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
Howe Barnes and/or its affiliates may have an interest in, or from
time to time trade or make markets in, the securities of issues discussed
herein.
Member of New York Stock Exchange
Member Securities Investor
Protection Corporation
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